The post-election wrap (part II)

Since Ann Richards’ defeat at the hands of George Bush in the 1994 gubernatorial election, the tide of Democratic control on the legislature and governor’s office has shifted at the statewide level. Texas today remains a Republican stronghold, and undoubtedly when you review Tuesday’s vote at the statewide level, that solid majority continues.  Republican control of the U.S. House delegation continues after having flipped following the 2000 election (24 Republicans – 12 Democrats).

Political scientists speak in terms of unified and divided government referring to whether the legislature and governor’s office are controlled by one or both parties.  Texas is clearly under unified control.  With conditions of unified government, one party generally has the ability to set the agenda and implement its policy preferences.  At the national level, it will be interesting to see how the Texas delegations gets along in a U.S. House controlled by the Republicans, and a U.S. Senate controlled by the Democrats.  The 113^th Congress may be gridlocked especially given that in the Senate, you need 60 votes or a 3/5^th supermajority (60 of 100 Senators) to pass a vote of cloture (which closes off debate and calls the question so the full Senatorial body can vote on whether a bill should become law).  So even though the Democrats technically control the Senate, because Republican Senators can filibuster knowing that the Democrats must get a super-majority to end debate, it is much easier to kill legislation.

Despite President Obama’s re-election victory, the political culture in Texas remains staunchly conservative.  When you examine who the freshmen Republicans were that won election to the Texas House and Senate, there is good reason to believe that the next legislature may have a more conservative agenda.

So what changed? Who did we vote for and what are the demographics of the 83^rd Texas legislature?

We tended to vote for incumbents. True, there were 49 new House members, and 6 new Senators, but these were largely open seats (ones where there was no incumbent running for re-election).  Of the 246 seats available in all statewide elections, there were only 16 people who were challenged and voted out of office.  Republican legislative dominance dropped slightly (95-55) from 102-48, and the Senate stayed the same (19 Republicans-12 Democrats). We have a less experienced legislature, owing in part to a huge pick up in 2010 of freshman.  We continue to have 67 freshman or sophomore members in the Texas House who may be more conservative than their predecessors.  That will depend on what both parties define as the top priorities moving forward.

What will be on the agenda? That one is yet to be unwrapped.