What’s the score?

Even though the Texas legislature voted against term limits (statutory limits on the number of terms an official may serve) for its top-level officials earlier in the 83^rd session, Governor Perry set his own term limits by deciding not to seek a record-breaking fourth term.  That means that Perry, the longest-serving governor in Texas history (over 15 years), leaves an open seat (one where there is no previously elected official holding the office).   Traditional wisdom is that it incumbents (the persons who now hold the office) make it much more difficult for challengers (those competing against the officeholder).  With Perry out of the way, the competition is lining up—it is expected that Attorney General Greg Abbott will announce his candidacy this weekend.  Former GOP Party Chairman Tom Pauken is also interested in being Governor, but that’s just the beginning of what might be a shakeup because of the ripple effect of the Governor’s office being vacated.

Get ready, you are going to need a scorecard to keep up.

You might have thought that the likely candidate for Perry’s job would be current Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst (incumbent), but after his stunning defeat to Ted Cruz in the U.S. Senate race last year, Dewhurst is vulnerable.  He’s hoping to take advantage of the incumbency effect (tendency of those holding office to win reelection), but he faces three tough challengers including Sen. Dan Patrick (R-Houston); Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples (Palestine); Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson (Houston).

With Abbott out-of-the-way, that means the Attorney General job opens up.  Likely candidates are Rep. Dan Branch (R-Dallas); Sen. Ken Paxton (R-McKinney), and Railroad Commission Chairman Barry Smitherman who will probably all get in the race.

What about the Democrats?

Perry’s announcement might seem like a cause for celebration by Democrats (indeed cake was served to celebrate Perry’s decision), but victory will be a long tough road.   Democrats haven’t won a statewide office since 1994. For now the Democrats are going to make it a hot one.

The special session continues to get even hotter, and today it will reach a fever pitch. The abortion bill which failed in the last special session, passed the Texas House on Wednesday and will head to the Senate today.  It will most likely pass, but there will be a showdown and a fight to the bitter end.  A pro-choice rally on Thursday featuring Sen. Wendy Davis (D-Ft. Worth) who filibustered (talking indefinitely to keep a bill from passing last time around) riled up large crowds encouraging them to “rock the boat”.   If and when the bill does pass, Texas will become the 13^th state to have a provision prohibiting abortion after 20 weeks.  It will also be a final triumph for Republicans who have so far been unsuccessful in passing restrictive abortion laws.  Indeed 24 different provisions proffered during the regular 83rd session have all failed to pass.

But who’s keeping score.

Session is on, is there a Speaker in the House?

Session is on, is there a Speaker in the House?

Game on today as the House and the Senate introduced their versions and visions of what the budget should be.  Strikingly, the Senate has proposed a leaner budget for once.  The Senate has posted a $186.8 billion budget, while the House came in slightly higher with a $187.7 billion budget.  The real question is how willing will some legislators be about restoring the $5.4 in cuts made in the 2011 session.  Before anyone does anything however, both chambers have a little speed bump because they need to pass an almost $6 billion supplemental budget (one which covers pending expenditures against the state) to deal with bills from the last legislative cycle.

And speaking of speed bumps, Joe Straus  (R-San Antonio) seems to have recovered from challenges to his leadership, and he was re-elected Speaker of the House, but he still has a rough road ahead.   As Speaker, his main duties are to conduct meetings of the House, appoint committees, and enforce the House Rules.  Or maybe not because it looks like Straus’ battles are not over.

Each new biennium (the 140 day legislative session that meets in odd-numbered years) the Texas House elects its leader for the session.  It’ virtually guaranteed it will be a Republican given 95 Republican-55 Democrat split, but the question often becomes whether there will be an internal party challenger (someone who is not the incumbent in the position).  Straus—a third term incumbent (existing holder of a political office)—seemed  to be the choice after the 2012 elections, until David Simpson (R-Longview) and Tea Party supporter accused Straus of not being conservative enough.  Simpson put forward a challenge, but at the last minute pulled out right before the vote.

Simpson may have had other goals in mind.  He wants to alter the rules of the game and limit the speaker’s power by altering the Speaker’s appointment authority and the rules governing procedures if a member opposes House leadership.  One of the more controversial proposals mandates that if a bill has 76 (51%) or more co-authors, the Calendars Committee must send it to floor debate within seven to 10 days-effectively allowing a bill to bypass the regular process.  The committee appointment power is also important because the chairs of the committee can kill legislation by never having it considered by the committee.  That’s critical because the Speaker makes appointments and expects his committee leaders to help pass his agenda, but that won’t happen if Simpson and conservatives who want to see a decentralization of power are able to change the rules.

Get ready, it’s game on.