Your turn! What do you think?

One more for the road block

Not so fast. That’s what U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said when he announced Texas will still have to get federal approval before making changes to its election process.  The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision earlier this summer in Shelby County v. Holder (2013) held that the preclearance requirements based on formulas under the Voting Rights Act (VRA) of 1965 were invalid. The VRA—reauthorized in 2006—places the burden of proof (duty placed on a party to prove or disprove disputed facts) on the state to ensure that any electoral changes do not have the purpose or effect of “denying or abridging the right to vote on account of race or color.” To determine which political units (states, counties, cities, etc.) must comply with preclearance, Section 4 of the law relied on 40-year-old data.

That’s what was at issue in the Shelby County litigation.  Chief Justice John Roberts’ majority opinion (5-4) indicated that the South had “changed dramatically” since the 1960s and that the law relied on “obsolete statistics” to determine which geographic areas were subject to federal jurisdiction (authority and control).

While Governor Perry and Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott might have thought federal control was something in the rearview mirror, Holder’s announcement that he would review Texas laws means more litigation. The state was found to have intentionally discriminated against Latino voters in a federal court decision just last year.

Prepare for Uncle Sam to throw up barriers to a voter identification law that had been previously blocked.

There are still a few hurdles in legislation to improve Texas roads—its estimated nearly $3billion is needed for upgrades, and over $1 billion for annual upkeep—but legislation funding the renovation has been slow. The two chambers of the legislature have been at an impasse over using monies from the Rainy Day Fund to finance TxDOT (Texas Department of Transportation) highway projects, and it has stalled at the end of the second special session. 

Summer races forward, and soon college students all across Texas will get ready to go back to school.  One group of students that face unique roadblocks are former foster care, college age students who want to attain a post-secondary degree.  While foster care students enroll as full-time students at higher rates than all other categories of students, the dropout and failure rates of the group are disproportionately high.  Texas provides free tuition to all former foster care, college age students who were wards of the state (persons—typically minors–who have a court-appointed guardian to take responsibility for that person) as part of a social safety net (social welfare services provided by state and local governments). Nonetheless there are substantial obstacles like covering housing, food, and transportation costs, never mind that navigating the bureaucratic maze of college requirements is difficult.  For that reason, groups like College for All Texans are important for helping to disseminate information so that road to a college degree will not be so rough.

Keep cruising folks.

Your turn! What do you think?

Back to the future

It finally happened. The Texas legislature passed pro-life legislation which languished during the regular session and was stopped by grassroots protests (volunteer activists who spontaneously turned out to block government action) in the last hours of the first special session,  It was finally signed into law by Governor Rick Perry this week.  Critics argue that conservatives are trying to turn back time to the pre-Roe days by sharply restricting abortion access (Roe v. Wade – 1973 legalized abortion and the case originated out of Texas).  The legislation that just passed with restrictive regulations will most likely force approximately 90% of abortion providers to shutter their windows.  The new law, along with funding problems, already caused one clinic to close its doors.

One person who is making sure that the constituency in El Paso knows he will have an open door policy and will not be ignored in the future is Attorney General Gregg Abbott. He traveled there as a part of his inaugural campaign for governor in 2014.  Abbott reassured listeners that he would be their delegate by pointing out that his wife is a Latina and promising to be more accessible.

Political scientists debate about what is the best theory of democratic representation.  James Madison (father of the Constitution) advocated a delegate concept of representation.   In contrast, Edmund Burke supported a trustee notion of government where representatives follow their own understanding of the best action to pursue rather than those of their constituency (the persons who elected them and who the representative serves).

Whether Attorney General Abbott can try to convince the Hispanic population he will be supportive of their positions on tough issues like immigration, remains to be seen.

Speaking of someone who is being seen all over the place, Senator Wendy Davis (D-Ft. Worth) continues to draw national attention after her filibuster (endless talking to prevent a bill from being voted on). Davis’ efforts to stop the abortion legislation may have ultimately failed, but she is taking advantage of the limelight to raise money for her legislative war chest (the amount of money a candidate has to spend on elected office). Some are suggesting she might be a potential Democratic nominee in the Governor’s race. Given that she has been successful raising over $1 million in the week since her filibuster, her future looks bright.

Your turn! What do you think?

What’s the score?

Even though the Texas legislature voted against term limits (statutory limits on the number of terms an official may serve) for its top-level officials earlier in the 83^rd session, Governor Perry set his own term limits by deciding not to seek a record-breaking fourth term.  That means that Perry, the longest-serving governor in Texas history (over 15 years), leaves an open seat (one where there is no previously elected official holding the office).   Traditional wisdom is that it incumbents (the persons who now hold the office) make it much more difficult for challengers (those competing against the officeholder).  With Perry out of the way, the competition is lining up—it is expected that Attorney General Greg Abbott will announce his candidacy this weekend.  Former GOP Party Chairman Tom Pauken is also interested in being Governor, but that’s just the beginning of what might be a shakeup because of the ripple effect of the Governor’s office being vacated.

Get ready, you are going to need a scorecard to keep up.

You might have thought that the likely candidate for Perry’s job would be current Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst (incumbent), but after his stunning defeat to Ted Cruz in the U.S. Senate race last year, Dewhurst is vulnerable.  He’s hoping to take advantage of the incumbency effect (tendency of those holding office to win reelection), but he faces three tough challengers including Sen. Dan Patrick (R-Houston); Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples (Palestine); Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson (Houston).

With Abbott out-of-the-way, that means the Attorney General job opens up.  Likely candidates are Rep. Dan Branch (R-Dallas); Sen. Ken Paxton (R-McKinney), and Railroad Commission Chairman Barry Smitherman who will probably all get in the race.

What about the Democrats?

Perry’s announcement might seem like a cause for celebration by Democrats (indeed cake was served to celebrate Perry’s decision), but victory will be a long tough road.   Democrats haven’t won a statewide office since 1994. For now the Democrats are going to make it a hot one.

The special session continues to get even hotter, and today it will reach a fever pitch. The abortion bill which failed in the last special session, passed the Texas House on Wednesday and will head to the Senate today.  It will most likely pass, but there will be a showdown and a fight to the bitter end.  A pro-choice rally on Thursday featuring Sen. Wendy Davis (D-Ft. Worth) who filibustered (talking indefinitely to keep a bill from passing last time around) riled up large crowds encouraging them to “rock the boat”.   If and when the bill does pass, Texas will become the 13^th state to have a provision prohibiting abortion after 20 weeks.  It will also be a final triumph for Republicans who have so far been unsuccessful in passing restrictive abortion laws.  Indeed 24 different provisions proffered during the regular 83rd session have all failed to pass.

But who’s keeping score.

Your turn! What do you think?

Never too early

Even though it is only 2013, the political pundits—those commentators who give authoritative opinions on politics and government—are already gossiping about who’s in and who’s out as potential presidential and vice-presidential candidates next time around.  Texas Democrats are vowing to make Texas a battleground state in 2016 by pushing get out the vote initiatives to focus on voter registration drives to increase the percentage of Democrats who could potentially vote, but who have traditionally not voted.   

The group “Battleground Texas”—formed last October by persons who worked on President Obama’s campaign—has begun strategizing and fundraising hoping that moderates and non-voters will see red about recent hot button issues like abortion and decide to vote blue.  This week the group is stepping up efforts after controversial abortion legislation has come up again in the second special session called by Governor Perry.  If passed, the pro-life legislation would make Texas among the most restrictive in the country.

Texas has a unique population because of its urban and rural demographics-with less populous areas being decidedly red while other urban areas have been turning blue since 2008. Blogger note: remember that since the election of 2000 parties are designated by their assigned color – red for Republicans and blue for Democrats—even though that wasn’t always the case.   A poll supporting the proposition that Texas is becoming increasingly purple (the color designated for states where both parties are fighting for control) was released showing that Hispanic voters may be a decisive factor in the next race for the White House. 

Why?

Julian Castro (Mayor of San Antonio) is being touted one of the top choices for vice presidential nominee.  This week Castro received major publicity after a new poll showed that Hispanics are much more likely to support Democrats if he was part of the electoral ticket.  Approximately 62% of Hispanic voters indicated that that they are either significantly or somewhat more likely to vote Democrat if Castro was named for the vice president slot.

Not so fast is what some Republicans are saying.

Governor Perry, who is knee deep in the second legislative special session that he has called, says he has an important announcement on Monday.  Perry has popular appeal in Texas, but the question is whether his last presidential bid did him more harm than good.  And just for good measure, another recent poll shows that U.S. Senator Ted Cruz is more popular than Perry among Texas voters with Perry coming in sixth place for Republicans.  Coupled with the facts that you are more likely to vote as you get older, that Republican strongholds around Texas are experiencing growth in their elder population, and that Texas has been solidly Republican since 2000, the GOP isn’t getting worried just yet.

No matter what the pundits say, it’s still too early to tell.