Happy New Biennium!

Hope all is going well for you so far in 2013! Things have started already heating up for the newly installed 83^rd Texas legislature as it came back into session yesterday with a full set of policy issues facing the state in the short biennial session (the 140 day period which runs in odd-numbered years).   Typically the first day is full of pomp and circumstance to welcome the legislators, but it is also a day filled with agenda setting (a discussion about what issues need to be addressed in the upcoming cycle).  With 150 members in the Texas House and 31 members in the Texas Senate, this session promises to be a rough ride because of the range of policy issues up for consideration.

In the last decade, Texas has become a majority Republican state–meaning that Republicans control the governor’s office as well as both chambers of the legislature.  So it’s no surprise that the GOP also controls the 83^rd legislature (Senate 19 Republicans-11 Democrats; House 95 Republicans-55 Democrats).  What is interesting is that we have a record number of freshmen legislators (those members of the House and Senate for whom this is their first term in office) and that Governor Perry has promised to make this a fiscally and socially conservative legislative year by limiting government spending.  The State Comptroller of Public Accounts-Susan Combs (person responsible for the state expenditures) said that spending must be limited to $101.4 billion dollars for the next two year cycle, so legislators are gearing up for discussing what should be the fiscal priorities this session.

Get ready for a budget battle.

Combs’ report Monday highlighted that the Texas Rainy Day Fund  (the reserve surplus that Texas holds for emergencies) has grown from 8.8 billion to $12 billion, leading some legislators to call for restoring spending on health care and education that were substantially cut in the 82^nd legislative session (about $5.4 billion).   Governor Perry fired back saying “[t]here are interests all across the state who view Monday’s revenue estimates as the equivalent of ringing the dinner bell.” Given that a number of conservative Republican incumbents were upset by Tea Party candidates (very conservative Republicans who adhere to reducing government spending and to promoting conservative social issues), the Governor will have additional support.  Added to the mix is whether the Governor himself may want to try another bid for the U.S. Presidency in 2016.  So while even some conservatives are concerned that Texas is being too tight with spending given how well the economy is doing, other Republicans are saying we need to be even more fiscally lean.

Don’t ring that bell just yet.

Far from a Photo Finish

Former state Solicitor General and Tea Party member Ted Cruz brought down long-time Republican and Lt. Governor David Dewhurst in a 55-45% victory July 31.  Dewhurst was the presumptive nominee after the May 29^th Republican primary when he received 44.6% of the vote and Cruz received 34.2% of the vote (seven other candidates divided the remainder).  Texas requires a primary runoff—an election after the regular primary—because no one candidate received a majority vote (50% plus). Primaries and runoffs are held prior to the general election when the parties (typically Democrat and Republican) put forward their candidates who run in the general election.

The U.S. Senate seat Cruz is seeking was previously held by Kay Bailey Hutchison who retired after she lost her bid to unseat Governor Rick Perry in the 2010 gubernatorial election.  This left an open seat (a position in which the person who has held the job—the incumbent—is not running). When someone like Hutchison retires, such open seats can lead to high profile races.

The election was closely watched because of the Tea Party’s involvement—a movement within the Republican party which supports very conservative fiscal and social policies. Its protests and support of political candidates since 2009 has steadily increased, and the Cruz victory is one of a growing trend of Tea Party success stories.  Consider the state Senate race between incumbent Jeff Wentworth (R-San Antonio) who held his state Senate seat for 19 years before challenger Dr. Donna Campbell, a political newcomer backed by the Tea Party, beat him in the July runoff by a 2-1 margin.  It was thought Wentworth would enjoy an incumbency effect—where most politicians are routinely re-elected making it difficult for challengers to win. Instead, Wentworth lost big time.

What is striking about both the Cruz and Campbell victories is that both were challengers, and they were also outspent by their opponents.  Incumbents are re-elected typically because they have a considerable war chest (campaign monies accumulated to run for office).  The Cruz-Dewhurst race cost $45 million making it the most expensive non-presidential race in the country.  Cruz and Dewhurst each raised over $8 million, with Dewhurst spending another $19 million of his own money.

Campbell now faces Democrat John Courage in the November election, but she is expected to win easily because Texas is solidly Republican.  Cruz now faces Democrat Paul Sadler in the November general election, but the U.S. Senate seat is considered a safe seat because the party nominee is the assumed winner given that Texas votes overwhelmingly Republican. Texans have not elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1994.