Filling his shoes

It’s not a situation any political party wants to face—figuring out what to do when an incumbent dies unexpectedly right before the election. That’s what Democrats are doing, however, because long-time state Senator Mario Gallegos died Tuesday of complications from a liver transplant he had five years ago. Early voting in Texas begins on Monday, what options does the party have?

Life’s rough for Texas Democrats. They are already the minority party, and most political pundits think the state legislature will be even more conservative after November. Under state law, it’s too late for the Democrats to file for a different candidate—and given that it is a safe seat (one which is considered secure because the district is dominated by approximately 60% or more of one party’s voters), that means there is little possibility that the seat could change hands because of the constituency.

Democrats are concerned, however, because the balance of power in the Senate could tilt giving Republicans dominant status in the 83^rd session come January 2013.  Currently, Republicans control 19 of the 31 seats—just two seats short of a super-majority (a percentage large than a simple majority of 51%).  So while bills require only 51% (simple majority for passage), Senate rules require two-thirds vote to even consider bills for passage.  With a super-majority of 21 senators, Republicans could ignore Democrats completely when putting bills forward.

If Gallegos is re-elected, then Governor Perry call for a special election (one which is not part of the regular election cycle) meaning that it could open up to Republican advantage. Right now it doesn’t look that way given the demographics of the district (Gov. Rick Perry only picked up 31% of the vote in 2010—a small percentage given how well he did in the rest of the state).

Speaking of Perry, there was speculation this week about whether he will run for re-election in 2014. He had said he wouldn’t make a decision until June 2013, but one of the governor’s former advisers started rumors that Perry will run.  Will he or won’t he? More importantly, who would fill his shoes? Watch for Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott to get his running shoes on if Perry doesn’t.

Texas Round-up

Democrat Carol Kent is hoping that what might have been considered a safe seat in north Dallas (House District 114) will be hers in the upcoming election against Jason Villalba-a Republican Hispanic who has been moderate on some issues like funding for education. Kent is running after having lost her House District 102 seat in 2010 after redistricting.

Mario Gallegos was much beloved as the first Mexican American elected to the Texas Senate in 1990—so it is no surprise that a Texas blog reports Gallegos had indicated he wanted Carol Alvarado to replace him.  Alvarado is currently running for re-election to the Texas House where she has previously served two terms. Bet on her to fill Gallegos’ shoes—they will be big shoes to fill indeed—he will be missed.